Dubai’s real estate market is gearing up for its most active summer on record, with total transaction volumes expected to surpass $40 billion between June and August 2025. This projection follows a strong start to the year, as Q1 2025 recorded AED 142.7 billion (38.9 billion US dollars) in transactions, representing a 22 percent increase year-on-year. The trend positions the summer for total activity in the AED 150 to 160 billion range (41 to 44 billion US dollars). In contrast, Summer 2024 ended with just over 33 billion US dollars in total transactions, suggesting a potential seasonal growth of 25 to 30 percent.
A key driver behind this momentum is the maturing pipeline of projects launched in 2023 and 2024, many of which are now nearing completion. This provides investors with a final opportunity to acquire units before handover-related price increases take effect. Off-plan transactions have grown significantly, now accounting for over 63 percent of all sales, up from 54 percent the previous year. This shift highlights growing buyer confidence in the city’s development trajectory.
The current market surge is also supported by a favorable economic backdrop. Sustained property price appreciation, strong off-plan activity, and improving macroeconomic indicators are contributing to what many experts see as a limited-time window for investment. Apartment prices are projected to rise by 6 to 9 percent year-on-year, while villa prices may see gains of 7 to 10 percent. In emerging areas such as Arjan and Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), capital appreciation on off-plan units could reach 15 to 25 percent by the time of handover.
Historically a quieter season due to summer travel, the third quarter of 2025 is now presenting enhanced opportunities for buyers. Developers are responding with limited-time summer offers, including attractive post-handover payment plans, particularly in the mid-luxury segment.
“Summer 2025 offers a compelling value window that we expect will close quickly by Q4,” said Elkhan Salikhov, CEO at Elite Merit Real Estate. “We’re seeing a convergence of factors such as pricing still below peak, soft summer inventory pressure, and upcoming project handovers creating an ideal moment for experienced buyers.”
